← ABYSSAL HEAVEN STORE CHAMPIONSHIPS
Water Crux MageTier 2
at ABYSSAL HEAVEN STORE CHAMPIONSHIPS
decks
1
(5.0% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
1-3-0
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
27.2%
avg ELO -14.6 per match
expected value
45.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
41.2%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↑ top
mean ELO 1642
· median 1642
· range 1642–1642
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1151
Q1 1351
Q3 1490
1642
100% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by stronger players — weight the headline winrates accordingly (the ELO-adjusted column already controls for this at the match level).
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 15.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.8% | -19.6 |
| Water Fractal | 15.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 10.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 10.0% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 51.9% | +3.0 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.0% | -17.6 |
| Fire Aggro | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 5.0% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 34.9% | -24.2 |
| Wind Byakko | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 5.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Crux Mage decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
